Memoirs II bear market

From 2245 points to 998 points, bit by bit to see a bear market.
Each round of the bull market, are similar to the peasant uprising, bound to bring a large number of new investors enter the market at high tide, and then gradually into the long winter, many The revolutionaries under torture, loss of faith in struggle, and then start another reincarnation, but not many people left with the last round of the memory: Forgetting the past means betrayal, no history is not mature, so investment such as in round like the old, always a cycle.

what the investment, not looking for garbage in the climax species; but underestimated the opportunity to see the despair. Let us get on 998 time space shuttle, look at how the market is struggling to survive, please add a memory of a friend.

2001 年

2001, the year 14 June 2245 saw the big top, but it was the climax of immersion finish in the bull market, not many people think has been very dangerous. Xiaonian writer in September 2001 a research report that the current market correction is inevitable and also healthy, and even predict when the index fell 1,000 points or so might be "cleaner" in the market, China's stock market should be overturned over again. He told the Chinese stock market from the "Enterprise Ontology" changes to "shareholder primacy" theory has aroused strong concern of the industry and highly controversial. Even earlier, in June 2000, Li Jiange (when he was deputy director of the Economic Restructuring Office of the State Council), writes: "At present, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market average of 40-50 times of high price-earnings ratio on the run ... ... if the domestic A shares are Some prices on the chopped in half, could not believe what is incomprehensible things, but the stability of the whole society will be severely affected. visible, high price-earnings ratio investors not only stuck, but stuck with the entire community. "

from the situation at the time, the two chiefs to issue occurs in good times, the eyes may be about 20 times price-earnings ratio, price-earnings ratio is, after all, was offering 20 times, the early market financing for major state-owned enterprises out of this predicament is to function to a general break when, on the large end almost, so they all look up and down 1,000 points.

However, this moment was then, when the Lords approved about 20 times earnings, to the full circulation in China today after the stock market, it also continues to apply to us?

bigwigs have not said, but the market will soon be an answer.

is roughly 20 times the current location, if the anti-body up here, indicating bigwigs point to today is still valid. If the broader market continued to drop deep, it shows bigwigs need to advance with the times, the so-called reasonable price-earnings ratio downward revisions.

main stock index closed at 1645 year over the previous year had fallen by 20%; However, look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2001 ten rise:

600006 600831ST Yellow Dongfeng Automobile Engineering, Xiamen Branch 600 815 Machine 600 146 600 679 shares of Phoenix Tai Yuen shares Pudong Stainless 600 132 600 748 600 186 Lotus Gourmet Powder Chongqing Beer 600745ST Ningxia Hengli Kangsai 600,165 gain distribution of 15% to 46%, essentially small-Zhuanggu occupied, that is bull the last wave is done Zhuanggu waves in stir.

these shares except for a few, such as 600831,600748 later re-transforms into blue chip stocks, 600,815 to benefit from reverse engineering machinery and out of the wave of bull market, most of the back of the bear market in march on the road left behind out badly, because the main capital chain broken, and no answer had to down Meng killed plate, down time can be basically playing two folded. For example, the Galaxy was the largest securities because of adverse economic Zuozhuang 600006,600377 and fame out.

2002 年

2002, the close of 1358 points, then it slid 20 percent, but worth noting is that a year on June 23, management announced the cessation of state-owned Shares, San people think is good substantive flood into the room and fitted long-broker funds took the opportunity to become a big seller, 1747 became the year's high ground. This is because many believe that state-owned shares at the market price reduction policy is the fundamental reason for the bear market, so stop the reduction is a fundamental measure, very similar to the present-day size of the non-bar.

2002 年 10 months, the main stock index experienced a temporary support in 1500, the index gradually pulled out at the same position again another huge drop after the third Yang Xiong Qi, as from Centralized held on November 8 that year, Thus after the collapse of "十六大 market" argument, and the Olympic holding stability and also Cha Buli matter, the results on November 8 after collapse of decline, ending up with the Olympic market reports Cha Buli. Opened in June 2008 after the K-line graph, line graph K is also feeling the truth ring.

02 years, ten main stock index rose:

600057 Amoi

600664 Harbin Pharmaceutical

600714 mountains shares

600228 Chang 9 Biochemical

600836 Jielong

600377 Jiangsu Expressway

600710 Changlin

600235 Minfengtezhi

600217 Qinling Cement

at this time due to independent start Huaxi Securities 600 786 600 057 and a chip which beat the Galaxy, the South is the two-Ha, 600,664 and 600,038, although there are 624 of good help Pao Lu, but the nature of the broker's funds They will be further and further away, as Han Zhidong said: to the South first, give change, and the second is to find the money to the original position to continue to do so, coming to an a bull market came to liberate. However, we did not realize at that time the spring is still far away. The second bear market, or to Zhuanggu performance-based. South Zuozhuang took too much, if not 600 664, and later fell out with the Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, Harbin Pharmaceutical in accordance with the SAC will not direct the majority of high-quality assets are injected into another investment Zuozhuang Kazakhstan's 600,829 went.

dancing mobile phone, Huaxi Securities who at least she has a current market acceptable myth, the second approach compared to the first field to be smart to do a little silly.

damage due to the policy of 624, too, this time the concept has gained a bear market, after the good of all the management have all been playing chicken blood as a needle but can not appreciate, but in fact, spring is not far , and to buy the 2002 closing price, the 2003 is the ability to sort of relief to early 2004 that brought a red envelope. The reason is that the securities field problems have been threatening to domestic financial security.

At this point, brokerage financial chain is getting more and more exposed, thus limiting access to capital from outside brokerage firms, and lead to industry issues in a large outbreak in 2003 and the Commission a full range of remediation.

However, in another front, in 2000, "Fund Muckraking" turned out to be the management after suppressing down quickly, and not too much impact on the nascent fund industry; generally weak in 2002, the Fund City is growing rapidly. "Closed-end funds starting in 2002 plus Kuomu 12.727 billion yuan, up 18.45%; open-end funds starting 447.9502 million yuan, an increase of 382.02%, achieved extraordinary development." Although the share of the market share when the fund is not high, but has begun to have the influence is more interesting: the last trading day for two consecutive years late to do pull-high market value, which is the more boring Ruoshi actions. Given the large amount of new capital joining the fund's performance that year is less than the index down 5 percentage points, but closed the performance is very poor, provide us with a blood transfusion to the task of open-end funds because the funds need to do new high-performance open to increase their size. This also explains the flow of money itself, money broker chain problems, out of stock funds entered the open-end funds.

2003 年

2003 year, the market is the biggest feature of the birth of the new profit model, the value of investment as a manifestation of iron and steel, petrochemical, automobile , electricity, finance, represented by a blue chip market in 2003 led the entire year, accounting for most of the market profit opportunities.

"local bull" has become the most important features of the market in 2003 in markets .2003 performance for "Stronger Always the Winner, the weak constant weak" and "local bull market," a new pattern. the whole year was only 240 stocks rose, accounting for 20%, down stocks 1034, accounting for 80%, rising shares mainly in the electricity, steel, automobile, petrochemical and other industries with higher degree of trade boom.

this year is also the strength of substantial development funds and QFII year, while the total brokerage funds outbreak chain issues, but also enhance the flow of funds financing the stock market together. As the broker battered almost all year Ushimata dominated by the fund and QFII, while the original Zhuanggu model abandoned.

brother and I to help ponder add

03 Year also encountered the SARS in April 2003 to market the original triumph, in mid-April is the SARS epidemic was interrupted from the April surge in early fall to late April .... then the fund managers, brokers almost no research fellow GDP, CPI ... glued to the television watching news network, to see the two data , a known number of cases of new cases, a number of cases called new suspected cases, and analysis of data daily ... the next day's tape loop than the basic high and U.S. stocks open lower Hong Kong shares open all okay, that is, and data about these two. ...

Oh, thank you upstairs Brothers added:

03 years also occurred in many major markets, the Commission was in a downturn is not idle.

1 month, launched a large transaction. But no one with the Shanghai Stock Exchange until August before the first one out, or debt. Shenzhen has come from behind, Galaxy Securities led 000,735, use the first one higher than the market value, raised the wave, and ran off. . . .

2 months, the central authorities issued advice on the capital market, the Securities and this one should finally set a higher status, is through room before the big girl, want to go to bed to bed, get out of bed had to do hard labor . However, when many people did not value this piece of paper, especially since the first quarter of atypical pneumonia caused by market failures, then do not listen to management 忽悠 enjoys popular support.

2 month of preheating of the QFII, first approved by the nine banks are trustees. I remember Chen Feng brother is such a description: must hit resource stocks, crude oil, nonferrous metals and the like, must be the configuration of their scarcity. The results on July 9 under the first single by the UBS: 600018,600019,600270,000063, the next day all the red plates.

there was blue chip boom of support, so the rebound after the failure in the first quarter, up more, fall less, and the Fund should continue to flow into the funds after Kuomu, QFII is that after entering direction, which is far outperforming the market throughout the year value as investment had begun to spread.

4 took place the first offer to purchase 600,282; June 11, raised placards Baosteel Group 600 643; in July, shares in the Hangzhou Iron and Steel, Lutianhua the semiannual reports of top ten shareholders in the country, respectively Social Security Fund 103 Portfolio, 104 combinations, this is the first appearance of Social Security Fund semi-annual report. September, TCL merged first convertible, access to market a warm fry.

In fact, the downturn in the index, outside the capital gradually flows into the market, just see the game better is inevitable. Meanwhile, a large number of stars in the curtain call before the Zhuanggu times, in April 000,048 in the case of first-instance ruling Luliang; and Deron Department has officially fallen in the year. When the year closed breath Dalian, Xinhua and other adverse broker, as the media reported the in-depth, original Zuozhuang models and financing platforms have also fallen.

03 years Ushimata list:

600205 Shandong Aluminum

600886 China Jing

600104 Shanghai Automotive

600002 Qilu Petrochemical

600740 Shanxi Coking

600786 Dongfang Boiler

600688 Shanghai Petrochemical

600362 Jiangxi Copper

600026 China Shipping Development
< br> 600585 Conch Cement

gains distribution of 80% to 130% in fry clues can see the main boom and price increases the industry, some 600 886 individual stocks and the like is related to the restructuring. Downturn in the industry to begin mass mergers of stock 600585,600320,000039 like entered the mainstream view, and later in the aluminum, like Sinopec downturn in the industry one after another to complete the internal integration. This is a typical concentration of the Fund and QFII holdings list, 600 786 is the last of a legacy. That is: the third phase in a bear market, the importance of stock selection has been higher than the election, and some quality stocks began to clearly gotten the nod.

However, 03 years in September, began to increase the deposit reserve ratio, 04-year macro-control has an atmosphere.

2004 年

time into 2004, the beginning of China Southern Securities to be taken over the whole year was taken over by brokerage firms closed and a new record high, and thus the formation of large two open positions. At the same time the Commission decides to lend them a good broker, open a brokerage asset management plans for the collection, while CITIC, sea links, the Great Wall approved the first issuance of 42 million. Main stock index rebounded to the first quarter increased from 1300 to 1873, was that the bull market to come back again, but accompanied by the central bank increased interest rates and the reserve ratio, the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control is increasing, this is the first time experienced value investors control pain.

However, their camps have also been expanded, insurance direct investment is approved, Social Security, said two investment to increase, the management of enterprise annuity market is open, and LOF fund was first created; broker also allowed to issue short-term financing bills, while reducing the annual fee and exchange seat license fees as part of the broker if you do not enter the liquid, is facing a large area in danger of bankruptcy. The April 04 rally after the failure of a unilateral drop in almost no trading opportunities. Until the September 04, the Commission suspended for some time IPO, aims to inquiry distribution system, but the number of shares at that time also break very much. But because of September in 2004 there was a rapid rebound quickly from the 1200 straight to 1500, followed by a continuous Yindie, shrinking the liquidity of the market until nearly exhausted.

Basically, the bear market of this stage is that all of the good were running for their lives as opportunities for investors to be the most do not see people being the market all the parties involved into the quagmire. More bizarre is this: the year in January and November, the Shanghai Stock Exchange suffered from the interruption of a normal trading, but after the emergence of the phenomenon of short-term trading activity.

2004 Year also issued stock collateral loan scheme is to open a liquidity premium broker channel; four ministries jointly issued a way to protect the interests of small investors is to broker trust management of the debt part of the acquisition by the state , 100 000 the following is not a discount of 10 million yuan to fight 九折. At that time it was joke: a trust management to do better, two years after the bear market hit a Jiuzhe even get back, but also bear the losses of less than a lot out, really be protected.

the same time, in December Classified voting system came out, the benefit of hindsight, this is actually split share structure reform to play ahead of quantity, while some did play a role in protecting the interests of investors. However, the big bear market of the product less prestige, not many people have to worry about these things, because the benefits have been reduced to die.

from the real sense, the history of the candles to the future, management naturally with the market down-well system construction, the road is the Yangtze River.

04 年 9 months, Overseas Chinese Town Group for purchase of securities giant field, but Koda's 0069 accounts on a large number of outstanding shares, so lame, to 200 million yuan repo 0069, the practice in Ruoshi out of this terrible market. After 0069 the price was still not broken. December 2004, Zheng Junhuai its long-term female assistant Yang Guiqin arrested, the market was shocked. However, the 600,887 in the fall after consecutive huge amount, was a salvage Boshi Fund and Century Securities, said that the new head of the Pan promised these institutions just to future performance growth, the price of this day in history low, even in the 998 when there are more than 30% of the floating surplus. In the third phase of the bear market is already re-see the new Zhuanggu active figure of the

This is a typical stock analysts at the article, but it can be discerned:

"We Statistics since March 2004 to March 2005's top gainer, rose in the two cities before the 20 stocks selected the following 20 stocks were analyzed, because most of these stocks continue to record high, very impressive. 20 stock are: Set Group, Suning Appliance, Moutai, Offshore Oil, deep Chiwan, Yantai Wanhua, Commodity City, Salt Lake Potash, large business shares, Tong Ren Tang, Sinochem International, ZTE, Yunnanbaiyao, Changyu A, Shanghai Airport, East E-Jiao, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Anhui through high-speed, Zhenhua Port Machinery, Huaneng Power. During the year fell, and these stocks rose 20% to 98%.
< br> sum up the year's top gainer group, both resource stocks, but also commercial sector, board, industry characteristics are not very obvious. Ushimata all sectors are likely to emerge, of course, the cattle industry boom and high higher probability of stock. Similarly, the plate size is not determinant, CIMC, ZTE, Shanghai Airport up and down the market value of 10 billion, while Suning Appliance, Yunnanbaiyao market value of around 1.5 billion, etc., can be moved very cattle.

If so, what factors have contributed to the bullish stock it? summarized the common characteristics of these stocks, that is, monopoly and the lead, and the resulting steady growth.

look monopolization, there is a variety, a kind of monopoly of resources, such as Salt Lake Potash typical and unique to bring a steady stream of profits of potash, coal mines are also non-renewable resource monopoly. Moutai, Yunnanbaiyao is another type of monopoly brand monopoly, liquor and rare, but the Maitai was only found in that place, and only where the water can be brewed Liquor, thus forming a unique brand can not be copied. Shanghai airport is the regional monopoly, regardless of the airlines to make money or lose money, as long as the aircraft parked at the airport had to pay, which is a Buffett-called "toll bridge\understand the value of these companies. many companies gross margin to be much higher than the company.

look at the lead, some companies do not monopolize the resources, but rely on superior management capability, gradually changed in the industry leading. typical of such as the monopoly set Corp. is not innate resources company, but after 10 Nian struggle, has become the world's largest container manufacturing business, naturally receive more of 利润. Shangye are Jingzhengjilie, low margin industry However, Suning Appliance and big business to seize the opportunity to expand share, increase market share and performance of high growth the company has gradually become the industry leader, also stock a bullish way. Yantai Wanhua, Huaneng Power upgrades are also part of this properties. "

In fact, these strong that funds get together behind the cattle, GF Zhu Ping when he said: looking for small but beautiful company, and then to a new bull market to cash. GF to do the reorganization of military counter-cyclical shares increase. During this period, some funds for counter-cyclical stocks is also very interested in the class, such as Castrol bought a lot of drugs, 000538,600276; course, the cycle of low class they are configured, such as a listing of 601 111 on the break. The form that the majority of anti-cycle type stocks, because the macro-control in 2004 and most likely be used to explain the reasons for the decline.

the other end of the market, some private equity began to make: the purchase of a basket of China's most outstanding companies, which was the high price of 20 yuan Rights Unit; others are proposed: the purchase of a basket of worst The company, which is 2 yuan less than the low price. Proved later, two people make a lot of money, worst combination in the big bull market actually the best combination of yield is even higher than some, although some board to mix up to three. Of course, the former will become more sophisticated, later used this collection of new trust.

in the 2004 to 2005, pigs can buy tickets to make money, what to buy is no longer important. However, for people who at that time, the night seemed very long, and did not think the following are the basement floor, can really achieve in 2005 a thousand points of promise big brothers.

2004 years Ushimata list, or distribution of 70 to 96%:

000617 Jinan Diesel

600561 Jiangxizhangyun

600519 Guizhou Maotai

000608 Shine

000039 CIMC

600415 Commodity City

600169 Taiyuan Heavy Industry

600596 shares
Xin
000063 ZTE

600521 Huahaiyaoye

list at this time period was also able to see the footprints of some brokers, such as 000,617 of the Great Wall Securities, 600 561 Jiangnan Securities, 600 169 of Orient Securities, 000,608 of the Jin and Yuan Securities; Since then, the brokerage system slowly the power of the market continue to decline, new fund the expansion of their share.

always makes sense of the vicissitudes of time filled with emotion. Remember the 600,199 and 600,399 that year in September after big Ushimata, which is the subject of restructuring wave. After years of bear market, market needs in a more imaginative themes to do, re on a good strong. 399 was sold for Shell to Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group, GF Securities and Guangdong Development Fund, the main do not sell back into the (last sold is 000,961, the iron and steel assets to 399); 600 169 prepare to sell to Taiwan's Hon Hai system shell Huaxia Securities Fund and the East Main to do, did not sell into, but 600,169 have become mechanical in the blue chip stocks, no longer have to re-up. Of course, these two species of fry is a failure. It is impossible to have a pair of see through the eye of time.

2005 年

2005 onwards, and the management of a thought, Ruoshi to promote value investing!

After a further round of bear market, everyone see the whole situation up when the heavy, or when the heavy truth, Pakistan's foreign begun a good old man practiced. However, the strengthening of the previous burst of profit-sharing ratio of 30%, as no one considered to be useful in the bread, although it has also dipped in the blood of everyone. . . .

January, Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the first dividend index. Sample stock dividend index based on the following selection criteria: consecutive cash dividend over the past two years, and annual cash dividend rate (after tax) are greater than zero; the past year, average daily circulation in the Shanghai Stock Exchange A stock market ranked the top 50%; the past average daily turnover during the year ranked in the Shanghai Stock Exchange A share of the top 50%.

1 23, the Ministry of Finance announced that stamp duty by half. But the index level in 1200 pulled out huge one-day sun, followed by a rapid decline. Needless to say, for those still in the floor trader is a serious injury.

2 months, insurance information directly into the market launch. Until February 17, Huatai Insurance to complete the first single security funds into the goods, but the insurance capital of bargain hunting, sufficient to support the February offensive, has risen from the 1328 round of the 1188 rally. February 24, China Shanghai 50ETF listed only as the first ETF, unusually active trading, changing hands on the first day up to 23%, ETF at the initial stage I. The state is also stabilized the broader market.

3 months, the central bank raised the personal mortgage interest rates, while the excess reserve rate cut. However, in the Ruo Shi, the obvious negative was enlarged, a new round of decline began.

4 30, the management issued a Declaration of share reform, announced the split share reform began, this time only the 1159 main stock index, the daily transaction amount on the maintenance of 50 to 70 billion, call auction not opening a lot of stock.

numb people remember it is not aware of the importance of the bull market in the next two years the foundation of good, first impression is: change is to a smaller share of the price to achieve the size of the market value of non-tradable. One can imagine, the final round of brutal sell into corrections has begun.

6 月 6 日 11 时 08 operated on a card index of 998.23 points, which is from February 21, 1997 has set foot on 1000 points, the Shanghai index dropped below 1000-point mark for the first time, go back to three median. However, there are as many investors were reported by acclamation. On the same day, management issued a buy-backs of listed companies, but no one believes the President is still a big 忽悠.

In fact, the village center as a paid chairman in February after the closure of a number of issues in addition to brokerage firms other than the important work of reform is to share good, as good relations with Liang Wengen, naturally understand the mind. June 10, 600,031 shares became the first reform of the companies do go down in history, and soon after, quickly announced repurchase 600,031 shares, as the share reform escort. After the event means the introduction of repurchase, as the weak market is in fact a large number of entities into the capital.

6 13, announced the red half profits and taxes. Think of the recent Securities and Futures Commission and the Internal Revenue Service has started on this, should every time, difficulties are pinching these tricks?

the same period has also announced to the applicant million, Hua grant credit lines to support their mobility. Exchange Bank listed in Hong Kong in June that year in December is also listed on the China Construction Bank, is the largest single international IPO, after years of domestic investors to always feel foreign copied CCB IPO of fertilizer, but in fact, when the bank shares valuation levels are similar, and are confident that 1000 copy A share point, the battle will be better.

turn around a bit these days, basically the big brother of economic sectors, the economic prospects for next year is pessimistic, the year after also playing missing, anyway what stagflation after the first inflation, the central point is that the What is needed to blow off millet fiscal policy, also can not stop the recession. There is, indeed, enough to taste: "Wang Shi, Ren Zhengfei, Ma had prepared for the winter, we also NB than they do?"

Even think of doing that year, when 600,169 was as if there is a popular saying: state-owned enterprises is a melting popsicle soon, as soon as possible to sell a good conversion side. Particularly the economy and the economy is not such machinery is a large state-owned enterprises have to deal, discount should be sold, so the province is trying to sell 600,169, only the conditions of agreement could be reached with the Department of Hon Hai, actually did not sell. Bear market finally has a theme, we quickly doubled fried, but the self and the China Orient Securities Fund are flesh out the final. Who knew it was not re-became a blue chip stocks, the main industry, is rather the economy, if you really sell, and perhaps not how, this year's Foxconn Hong Kong has lost a lot of value. Similarly, when there are large number of such enterprises, 600150,600685 this type of shipbuilding stocks, aluminum stocks valuation is very low, low aluminum group in the acquisition of a large number of smelting capacity.

winter and spring is really a heaven and earth, nothing but just expect it.

2005 年 6 11, Qinghua share reform has become the first pilot of the first "victims\major shareholders to make their voices loud, small investors in addition to voting with their feet, now able to vote by hand.

6 29, Baosteel announced the share reform program, which will be made tradable shareholders presented a copy for every 10 shares warrants, Baosteel has become the first to warrant the introduction of share reform companies.

8 months, the SASAC, the Ministry of Finance, Bank of China, Ministry of Commerce jointly issued by five ministries and commissions "on the share reform of listed companies guidance," announced the pilot reform has been successfully completed, with overall actively and steadily push forward the transfer basis and conditions. Meanwhile, the release "of listed companies tradable share reform management practices\

8 22, stock market ushered in the first year after an absence of 9 Steel warrants warrants only traded huge amount of capital letters in the opening Jibei daily limit, pulled off a wild speculation warrants.

history many times to prove: stock market for new things always put a lot of passion, who later became the 998 warrants trading since the bull market in the happiest group of people, allegedly ASKING like fortune on this.

2005 年 12 月 6 日 break billion barrier warrant transactions, the sum of the first super-A shares

PRC Han Ping's report: After yesterday's close of concern for those who were shocked to stock market found that only six species actually warrants a record turnover of 10.18 billion yuan, a record one-day world warrant market, the highest turnover. This is also the country since the creation of warrant transactions, the amount of daily transactions mark the first time exceeded 10 billion yuan, the first time exceeded the amount of warrants market trading the stock market. Correspond with the warrant market is hot, nearly 1400 a day the stock turnover is only 8.531 billion yuan.

warrant was caused by management's surprise hot, released in November to broker the creation of methods to create qualified brokers have also assigned an unexpected big cake.

the end of 2005 stock index return to 1200 levels, but then the market is still quite weak, and no one realized that this was the starting point of a new bull market, though later there will be many who claim to be early cattle I could see the.